COP30: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
- CCAP
- 4 minutes ago
- 6 min read
COP30’s progress overshadowed by empty fossil fuel deal and fading ambition
After two weeks of negotiations marked by severe logistical hurdles, COP30—held in Belém, Brazil, a decade after the Paris Agreement and on the edge of the Amazon—officially concluded last Saturday. Expectations were high: COP30 was meant to be a transformative moment for the Paris Agreement, ushering in a new era of ambition through the third round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs 3.0). These updated commitments were expected to chart a credible path to avoiding the worst climate impacts this decade.
Yet, despite notable advances, many developing countries walked away disappointed. Although there was progress on methane finance, adaptation funding, carbon market rules and transparency, the final outcome left the world off track for its 2030 goals.
The final decision text—titled “global mutirão” (“collective efforts”)—did not mention fossil fuels, omitted a coal/oil/gas phase-out roadmap and offered only soft language on adaptation finance. With the potential for funding cuts of up to 40%, climate-vulnerable countries are left facing intensifying storms, floods and droughts largely on their own.
The inability to meaningfully advance the landmark fossil-fuel phase-out momentum launched at COP28 has raised new questions about the future credibility of the UN climate process, the Paris Agreement and the world’s collective climate trajectory.
For every COP, the Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP) tracks progress, opportunities and outcomes. Below is our annual Good, Bad and Ugly assessment of COP30.
The Good
First Article 6 Crediting Methodology Adopted
Just ahead of COP30, the UN body responsible for establishing the Paris Agreement’s international carbon market approved its first methodology. It outlines how to calculate emissions reductions from methane mitigation in landfill sites.This milestone unlocks new financing opportunities for mitigation projects, helps operationalize Article 6 and provides countries with additional tools to meet their NDC targets.
USD $30M for Circular Economy NOW!
At the High-Level Ministerial on Waste Management and the Circular Economy, the Global Methane Hub announced USD $30 million for the Circular Economy NOW! initiative—led by the COP30 Presidency with UNEP and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC).The effort brings together governments, cities, food banks, waste pickers and the private sector to build circular, equitable food and waste systems that reduce methane and expand opportunity.
Launch of the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF)
Brazil introduced the Tropical Forests Forever Facility, a groundbreaking finance model to reward countries for protecting tropical forests. Twenty percent of funds are reserved for Indigenous peoples, and more than 70 tropical forest-rich developing countries are eligible. By the close of COP30, the Facility had already raised USD $6.5 billion, with expectations for more contributions in 2025.
New Accelerator for Methane and Super-Pollutant Reductions
The United Kingdom and Brazil, under CCAC, launched a Super Pollutant Country Action Accelerator to drive major cuts in methane, HFCs and other warming pollutants across 30 developing countries by 2030. The initiative begins with a USD $25 million package targeting seven countries.
Progress on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG)
Wealthier nations agreed to triple global adaptation funding by 2035, contributing USD $120 billion annually from the existing USD $300 billion finance pool established at COP29.While many had hoped for new funding above the $300 billion, the NCQG also calls for mobilizing USD $1.3 trillion/year in climate finance by 2035, aligning closer to the actual needs of developing nations (estimated at USD $250–350 billion annually for adaptation alone by WRI).
Reciclo Orgánicos Chile Joins UNFCCC Non-Market Approach Platform
The program became the first Latin American initiative featured on the UNFCCC’s Non-Market Approach (NMA) Platform (Article 6.8), highlighting scalable methane mitigation opportunities in the waste sector and supporting the implementation of Chile’s NDC. Its participation underscores the potential of NMAs to expand technology transfer, capacity building and climate finance across the Global South.
New Global Fossil Fuel Phase-Out Conference Announced
Despite limited progress at COP30 on fossil fuels, a new conference dedicated solely to the global phase-out of oil, gas and coal will be hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands next year.
Declaration on Information Integrity on Climate Change Launched
This COP30 initiative establishes shared commitments to counter climate misinformation and protect environmental journalists, scientists, advocates and researchers. It calls on governments, civil society, private entities and donors to take concrete measures to improve information integrity and safeguard democratic processes related to climate action.
COP31 Host Confirmed
After prolonged negotiations, Turkey was selected to host COP31, with Australia’s climate minister Chris Bowen presiding. A separate climate dialogue will also be held in the Pacific. This compromise avoided the logistical and symbolic setback of defaulting to Bonn, Germany, and was widely seen as a positive outcome for COP continuity and global diplomacy.
The Bad
UN Confirms Surpassing 1.5°C Is Now Inevitable
Just weeks before COP30, the UN announced that overshooting the 1.5°C threshold is unavoidable. Current NDC 3.0 pledges amount to only a 12% reduction in emissions, far short of the 60% cut required to retain even a slim chance of stabilizing at 1.5°C.
Weak Fossil Fuel Phase-Out Result
Countries agreed only to begin discussions on a voluntary fossil-fuel “roadmap”—with no explicit mention of fossil fuels in the final text. Talks ran into Saturday as more than 80 countries clashed with petrostates led by Saudi Arabia and supported by Russia. The Brazilian Presidency ultimately announced it would pursue fossil fuel and deforestation roadmaps outside the formal COP negotiations. Latin American delegates also criticized the presidency for limiting objections in the final plenary.
Deforestation Roadmap Scrapped
Despite support from over 90 countries, a roadmap to halt global deforestation—critical at a “rainforest COP” held in the Amazon gateway—was dropped from the final agreement.
Global Methane Status Report Shows Insufficient Progress
A new status report revealed that despite the Global Methane Pledge’s momentum, methane emissions continue to rise. Only full implementation of existing cost-effective technologies can close the gap to the Pledge’s target of a 30% reduction by 2030.
Venue Disruptions: Fire, Flooding & Protests
During the final, high-stakes days of negotiations, a fire temporarily halted discussions. Flooding from storms and security breaches by forest protesters added to a series of logistical challenges that plagued COP30.
The Ugly
Brazil Approves Offshore Drilling Near the Amazon
Two weeks before COP30, Brazil’s environmental agency (Ibama) approved an exploratory offshore well near the Amazon River mouth—one of the planet’s richest marine ecosystems. The timing sent a troubling signal on fossil-fuel expansion ahead of a COP expected to champion forest and climate integrity and build on the recent fossil fuel phase-out language—a topic that ended up headlining this COP’s outcomes.
The U.S. Skips COP30 Entirely
Under its new political leadership, the United States—the world’s largest historical emitter—did not send a delegation. The absence created diplomatic strain, depressed climate finance ambition and cast a long shadow over negotiations. The Trump Administration has long framed climate change as a hoax, contributing to the weakened global moral and financial signals from the U.S. this year.
Amazon Deforested to Build a Highway for COP30 Logistics
Approximately 13.2 kilometers of Amazon rainforest were cleared to construct a four-lane highway near Belém, in part to accommodate the COP30 event. Although the project pre-dated the conference, COP30 was used as justification—drawing widespread criticism and highlighting the paradox of deforestation accelerating ahead of a “Forest COP.” The optics became even more damaging as final negotiations produced weak outcomes on forest protection.
Looking Ahead
COP30 delivered important advancements—especially on carbon markets, methane finance, forest conservation funding and global information integrity. However, its inability to secure concrete commitments on phasing out fossil fuels, deforestation and adaptation finance reveals a widening gap between climate ambition and global political reality.
As the world prepares for COP31, the credibility of the Paris Agreement hinges on turning “collective efforts” into collective action—rooted in equity, science and urgency.
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CCAP’s mission is to support every step of climate action, from ambition to implementation. A recognized world leader in climate policy and action, CCAP creates innovative, replicable climate solutions, strengthens capacities, and promotes best practices across the local, national, and international levels to accelerate the transition to a net-zero, climate resilient future. CCAP was founded in 1985 and is based in Washington, DC.